eCommerce Analytics

I’ve been reading a lot recently about the current squeeze on baby boomers and how this is affecting the traditional targeting methods used by many retailers. Noreen O’Leary over at AdWeek had a pretty good article last week on how the recession is weighing on the minds of boomers getting ready to retire – so much so that many have already curbed spending and are starting to discard brands that now seem too expensive or luxurious.  This is a huge problem for many retailers – baby boomers are the heart of many businesses and represent the best and most profitable segments. So what’s a retailer to do?

Read Appealing to Baby Boomers through Enhanced Cluster Analysis »

A couple of weeks back, I gave you a set of three hyperlinks that describe efforts to predict the next product that each of your customers will buy. Many companies that initially sprung up around this field have taken Amazon or Netflix and their collaborative filtering approach as the method for predicting what customers will like next. More strikingly, recommendation engine companies have patterned their offerings after Amazon and Netflix as well. That is, the output pieces are built around website infrastructure, meaning that the recommendations live online and are tailored specifically for customer visits. Alas, there are more than a few businesses that still make a majority of their money offline and need a solution that fits the non-electronic areas of their business. What about the merchandising arm that just wants to know how to determine the quantity of each product to buy from the manufacturer or wholesaler for the coming quarter?

Read Using Next Best Product Recommendations to Determine Inventory Levels »

I was reading up on analytics technology today and ran across an interesting article at TDWI (The Data Warehousing Institute) which surprised me.  It was surprising due to the fact that it was a year old but was reporting the same results as today:  predicitve analytics solutions are still novel to many companies and unknown to even more.  Even after dozens, if not hundreds, of successful case studies show how predictive analytics are a low-effort, high ROI solution to help a company achieve strategic goals:

[P]redictive analytics can yield a substantial ROI. Predictive analytics can help companies optimize existing processes, better understand customer behavior, identify unexpected opportunities, and anticipate problems before they happen,” Eckerson writes. For six years running, he points out, a majority of TDWI’s annual Leadership Award winners have used predictive analytic solutions to achieve noteworthy business results.

Before we created our predictive analytics solution for email marketing we knew the benefits of predictive analytics solutions and we realized that marketing has many metrics and data points as well as a very strong set of historical data which we can and do use to build solid, accurate models of customer behavior and desire.   Why are users of predictive analytics still considered Early Adopters?

Read Predictive Analytics Provide Big Payouts For Early Adopters »

The other day I was flipping through the channels and landed on an episode of CSI.  I forget which flavor, it looked sunny and beachy so it was probably not the one in New York City.   Anyway, in this episode a murder took place and the only evidence seemed to be a passerby’s recollection of a license plate and hair color of the driver.  Not much to start with but as we all know that is enough for the CSI team.  

Read Marketing CSI »

I will be the first to admit that our industry, predictive analytics to support retail marketing strategies, is dense with technical words, phrases and methodologies all wrapped up into various umbrella groups or plans such as “Market Segmentation Analysis”, “Customer Analysis”, “Predictive Marketing”, “Retail Pricing Strategy” etc. Although each sounds a bit different all of these approaches strive to reach the same outcome:

• Use available data to describe customers and understand their needs, wants and actions

and each takes a different approach but all the approaches are based on well established principles of computer science and statistics.

Read Market Segmentation Research: Science Fiction or Non-Fiction »

Just a short post today to finish off our fantasy sports foray of the last week and a half. In case anyone else noticed, our quarterback predictions showed up on Yahoo, as well as other eminently reputable sites, as MIT-Based Startup Predicts Tom Brady Will Break 24-Year-Old Passing Record. Well, by now we know that this will never happen, with Brady unluckily succumbing to the dreaded torn ACL.

Read Tom Brady and What Might Have Been »

There’s really not much to say about the tight end predictions except to repeat what I said for both the running back and wide receiver predictions. That is, the yardage totals and receptions are depressed. However, when taken in context, the rankings make quite a bit of sense. Well, if you expected Dallas Clark to be the top-ranked tight end. Click for the list.

Read Tight End Predictions for the 2008 Fantasy Football Season »

As I promised yesterday when I gave you our running back picks based on our predictive models, today is wide receiver day. And just like our running backs, you’ll find that the yardage totals of our wide receivers are somewhat depressed. That is, one might believe that some receiver will break out for 1300 yards or more in the season. And it’s likely someone will. But my model is very conservative.

Read Wide Receiver Predictions for the 2008 Fantasy Football Season »

Well, I apologize for not getting these out sooner but my draft just finished this week so there was no gun to my head in getting these models run. But in case you’re still curious about some regression-based predictions for this fantasy football season, I’ll drop the running backs on you today and then come back with wide receivers tomorrow and tight ends on friday.

Some quick notes on the running backs. In general, you’ll notice that the rushing yardage is quite depressed. This is largely because running backs tend toward entropy. That is, once they have a big season, the next season’s rushing total doesn’t quite live up to that previous season. Call it what you will: overwork from the prior year, increased injury likelihood, or teams keying on that back. Whatever the case, you are seeing this effect here. We know that some of these backs will break out and rush for a whole boatload of yards. But my model isn’t going to take risks on backs to do that so it discounts the yards for the whole lot.

The key to my running back model is really to use each player in context. So while LT’s 994 yards may seem too few, when we see him in context, he has the third-highest rushing total. Now that seems acceptable. The same goes for receptions where Brian Westbrook will have the most, even if the total is 33 below his 2007 total of 90.

Without further ado, the list:

Read Running Back Predictions for the 2008 Fantasy Football Season »

Last week I wrote about the Istobe willingness to share with you some of the predictive models that we use in our fantasy drafts. Well, a week later and the Istobe world headquarters is just now kicking the empty pizza boxes to the side and emerging into full sunlight with one hand visoring our eyes. Indeed, it’s been a computer-heavy week running model after model in an effort to win the right to mock our peers.

My quarterback-selection model (like my running back, wide receiver, and tight end models), which I share with you today, is actually a series of regression models that use 27 different predictors to arrive at an estimation of how NFL quarterbacks will fare this year in the following categories:

• Completions
• Passing Yards
• Interceptions
• Passing Touchdowns
• Fumbles
• Rushing Yards
• Rushing Touchdowns

I used these categories to derive a fantasy value based on my league’s scoring system and urge you to the do the same.

The Highlights

1. Tom Brady will have another big season. He’ll ease back on the touchdowns and increase his interceptions. But the yardage? Off the hook. Check out those 5200 yards he’s going to pass for.

Read Quarterback Predictions for the 2008 Fantasy Football Season »