Wide Receiver Predictions for the 2008 Fantasy Football Season

September 3rd, 2008 by Matt Thomson

As I promised yesterday when I gave you our running back picks based on our predictive models, today is wide receiver day. And just like our running backs, you’ll find that the yardage totals of our wide receivers are somewhat depressed. That is, one might believe that some receiver will break out for 1300 yards or more in the season. And it’s likely someone will. But my model is very conservative.

My model is intrinsically conservative because of the downward trend that occurs on a yearly basis with wide receivers. That is, a receiver who gained many yards last year is more likely to gain less this year. Perhaps the defense is keying on them - the dreaded double coverage. Or perhaps the receivers are more likely to absorb punishment this year, keeping them out of games. Whatever the reason, receivers, like running backs, are not predicted to have bigger years than they did the year prior. My model dislikes progress.

Who my model hates less: Calvin Johnson

One notable here is Calvin Johnson, who ESPN just predicted would become a receiving leviathan this year. Though his numbers are still underwhelming in my model - 721 receiving yards - Johnson is notable in the sense that my model actually likes him to do only slightly worse than last year. Which means that my model actually kind of hates him less than it does other receivers. So what does that tell you about his potential to really blow up this year? If he stays healthy, watch out.

Onto the list:

Player Name 2008 Points Recs. Rec. Yds Rec. TDs Rush Atts. Rush Yds Rush TDs 100-Yds Fumbles
R.Moss 110.30 93 1063 10 2 9 0 5 1
Ch.Johnson 99.69 77 1192 7 5 26 0 3 2
R.Wayne 96.18 80 1134 7 3 16 0 3 1
T.Owens 95.72 74 1035 8 2 10 0 4 1
L.Fitzgerald 91.94 78 1086 7 2 14 0 3 1
B.Edwards 91.50 75 941 8 2 14 0 4 1
M.Colston 84.31 77 949 6 1 8 0 3 1
T.Houshmandzadeh 84.02 86 931 6 3 14 0 3 1
B.Marshall 82.83 75 983 6 5 31 0 3 2
T.Holt 79.08 70 947 6 2 10 0 2 1
P.Burress 76.34 65 789 6 1 7 0 3 1
Roy.Williams 75.77 61 861 6 2 9 0 2 2
W.Welker 74.16 80 846 5 4 23 0 3 1
K.Curtis 73.41 61 871 5 1 7 0 2 1
R.White 72.75 63 860 5 2 12 0 2 1
B.Engram 71.40 66 857 5 1 7 0 2 1
D.Mason 70.60 73 839 5 1 7 0 2 1
G.Jennings 70.22 53 727 6 1 6 0 3 1
Reg.Williams 70.06 55 673 6 2 12 0 2 2
S.Smith 69.77 67 800 5 5 27 0 2 1
J.Cotchery 68.64 58 881 4 4 19 0 2 1
Roydell.Williams 66.65 56 732 5 1 0 0 1 1
S.Holmes 65.16 47 740 5 3 14 0 2 1
B.Berrian 64.81 56 766 5 1 7 0 2 1
A.Boldin 64.30 59 715 5 2 13 0 2 1
D.Driver 64.29 57 825 4 2 8 0 2 1
Ca.Johnson 62.45 47 721 5 3 30 0 1 1
D.Bowe 61.36 53 707 4 1 6 0 2 1
J.Galloway 60.87 46 707 4 1 6 0 2 1
L.Evans 59.79 48 703 4 1 6 0 2 1
C.Chambers 59.72 50 717 4 2 10 0 2 1
S.McDonald 59.50 57 723 4 3 12 0 2 1
A.Johnson 58.20 51 623 5 1 6 0 2 1
H.Ward 57.19 58 636 4 2 7 0 2 1
N.Burleson 56.46 48 606 5 2 11 0 2 1
P.Crayton 55.27 46 620 4 1 7 0 2 1
K.Walter 55.15 51 641 4 3 15 0 2 1
R.Brown 54.98 49 655 4 3 16 0 2 1
S.Moss 53.74 49 642 4 2 12 0 1 1
J.Porter 53.70 44 580 4 1 5 0 2 1
I.Bruce 52.89 45 638 4 1 4 0 1 1
A.Toomer 52.39 47 620 4 1 5 0 1 1
L.Coles 49.53 46 548 4 1 4 0 2 1
R.Curry 49.26 45 563 4 1 5 0 1 1
D.Branch 48.74 41 578 3 1 5 0 1 1
D.Patten 48.63 39 628 3 2 6 0 1 1
V.Jackson 46.51 38 539 3 1 4 0 1 1
A.Battle 46.31 45 508 4 2 20 0 1 2
M.Muhammad 46.06 38 537 3 1 4 0 1 1
Ja.Jones 45.92 38 583 3 2 10 0 1 1
B.Stokley 45.06 36 508 3 1 3 0 1 1
B.Wade 45.02 43 538 3 1 4 0 1 1
D.Stallworth 44.22 37 524 3 2 8 0 1 1
M.Furrey 44.06 43 578 3 1 5 0 1 1
I.Hilliard 43.34 43 559 3 2 12 0 1 1
D.Northcutt 43.19 38 485 3 3 13 0 1 1
J.Jurevicius 43.08 41 500 3 1 4 0 1 1
M.Booker 42.37 40 525 3 2 8 0 1 1
A.Gonzalez 42.18 32 511 3 1 4 0 1 1
A.RandleEl 41.43 36 525 3 2 9 0 1 1
E.Wilford 40.61 39 460 3 1 4 0 1 1
Mi.Clayton 40.13 38 502 3 1 4 0 1 1
J.Gage 39.71 35 501 3 1 5 0 1 1
D.Jackson 39.26 40 438 3 1 4 0 1 1
A.Davis 38.96 30 453 3 1 4 0 1 1
J.Reed 38.57 37 506 2 2 7 0 1 1
D.Carter 37.67 32 433 3 1 4 0 1 0
D.Henderson 35.79 24 428 3 2 9 0 1 1
Bry.Johnson 35.16 32 448 2 1 4 0 1 0
N.Washington 35.09 28 389 3 1 3 0 1 0
J.Gaffney 35.04 33 357 3 1 3 0 1 0
M.Jenkins 32.37 38 346 3 1 4 0 1 0
T.Ginn 31.83 30 394 2 2 9 0 1 1
D.Hackett 31.44 28 370 2 1 3 0 1 0
S.Rice 29.69 28 317 2 1 3 0 1 0
M.Clayton 29.56 25 353 2 2 9 0 0 1
R.Ferguson 28.56 27 346 2 1 3 0 1 1
D.Bennett 28.52 26 341 2 1 3 0 1 0
K.Colbert 28.33 27 362 2 1 3 0 0 1
L.Robinson 27.32 28 324 2 1 3 0 1 0
C.Henry 27.23 20 349 2 1 3 0 1 0
L.Moore 26.87 26 331 2 1 16 0 1 1
Si.Moss 25.87 24 304 2 1 3 0 0 1
J.Urban 25.76 19 325 2 1 3 0 1 0
R.Martin 25.30 21 263 2 0 2 0 1 0
D.Hagan 24.79 23 301 2 1 3 0 1 0
B.Smith 24.33 23 280 2 2 7 0 1 1
E.Moulds 24.17 25 300 2 1 3 0 0 0
S.Parker 23.89 23 262 2 1 3 0 1 1
R.Parrish 23.80 25 296 1 2 18 0 1 0
J.Horn 23.47 26 255 2 0 2 0 0 1
D.Darling 23.25 18 256 2 1 3 0 1 0
S.Hurd 22.91 17 299 1 1 3 0 1 0
T.Williamson 22.22 20 255 2 2 11 0 0 1
J.Avant 22.15 21 258 2 1 3 0 1 0
M.Harrison 21.58 19 279 1 0 2 0 0 0
G.Lewis 21.54 16 238 2 0 2 0 1 0
J.Walker 20.16 21 265 1 1 1 0 0 1
D.Williams 20.02 17 258 1 1 2 0 0 0
J.McCareins 19.70 17 257 1 0 2 0 0 0
J.Webb 19.23 21 232 1 1 7 0 1 1
B.Jones 19.01 19 203 1 2 14 0 1 0
J.Jones 18.66 19 223 2 1 4 0 0 1
K.Robinson 18.36 17 230 1 1 4 0 0 0
s.smith(ny) 18.04 17 198 2 0 1 0 0 1
C.Wilson 17.62 16 218 1 2 13 0 0 0
K.McCardell 16.30 18 186 1 0 2 0 0 0
A.Chatman 16.25 16 215 1 1 3 0 0 0
T.Copper 16.07 15 192 1 0 1 0 0 0
B.Obomanu 15.44 12 197 1 0 2 0 0 0
G.Camarillo 14.82 11 164 1 0 2 0 0 0
G.Holt 13.97 13 199 1 1 8 0 0 1
E.Kennison 13.93 16 151 1 1 3 0 0 1
J.Thrash 13.47 14 120 1 0 1 0 0 0
S.Morey 13.15 9 188 1 1 6 0 0 0
R.Davis 12.88 14 170 1 0 2 0 0 0
H.Baskett 12.74 14 155 1 0 2 0 0 0
T.Walters 12.27 10 156 1 0 1 0 0 0
D.Hester 11.98 8 147 1 1 0 0 0 0
G.Martinez 11.91 12 165 1 1 7 0 0 1
E.Johnson 11.71 9 161 1 0 1 0 0 0
P.Price 11.45 10 140 1 0 1 0 0 0
D.Aromashodu 11.32 9 155 1 0 1 0 0 0
S.Breaston 11.31 9 165 1 1 4 0 0 0
B.Middleton 11.05 10 137 1 0 1 0 0 0
C.Thorpe 10.80 12 132 1 0 1 0 0 0
A.Moorehead 10.76 10 145 1 0 1 0 0 0
A.Lelie 10.46 11 117 1 0 1 0 0 0
T.Dwight 10.32 11 91 1 1 8 0 0 1
J.Broussard 10.29 8 108 1 0 1 0 0 0
W.Wright 10.25 8 136 1 0 1 0 0 0
D.Anderson 10.24 12 114 1 1 4 0 0 1
R.Caldwell 9.95 13 117 1 0 2 0 0 0
M.Austin 9.83 7 138 1 0 1 0 0 0
T.Carter 9.80 10 101 1 0 1 0 0 0
M.Stovall 9.78 11 101 1 0 1 0 0 0
S.Green 9.45 7 141 0 0 1 0 0 0
M.Bradley 9.29 9 105 1 0 1 0 0 0
T.Perry 8.89 6 129 0 1 4 0 0 0
D.Jarrett 8.75 8 116 1 1 5 0 0 0
W.Reid 8.50 7 117 1 0 1 0 0 0
A.Allison 8.46 9 113 1 1 5 0 0 1
T.Bienemann 8.44 6 121 0 0 1 0 0 0
M.Floyd 8.38 9 99 1 0 1 0 0 0
D.Looker 8.36 8 120 0 0 1 0 0 0
C.Lucas 8.29 8 99 1 0 1 0 0 0
D.Hall 8.16 8 122 1 2 9 0 0 1
M.Maxwell 8.02 5 120 0 0 1 0 0 0
C.Taylor 8.01 7 111 0 0 1 0 0 0
C.Roby 7.65 4 117 0 0 1 0 0 0
B.Gilmore 7.64 8 90 1 0 -1 0 0 0
J.Rector 7.40 4 109 0 0 1 0 0 0
R.Meachem 7.33 4 108 0 0 1 0 0 0
A.Jennings 7.25 9 56 1 0 1 0 0 0
T.Taylor 7.25 5 100 0 0 1 0 0 0
J.Peelle 7.09 7 87 1 0 1 0 0 0
M.Hagans 7.05 6 107 0 1 4 0 0 1
J.Tuman 6.88 5 93 0 0 1 0 0 0
D.Stanley 6.79 4 97 0 1 2 0 0 0
T.Glenn 6.59 4 92 0 0 1 0 0 0
R.Robinson 6.58 7 93 0 1 4 0 0 1
I.Stanback 6.56 4 92 0 0 1 0 0 0
L.Naanee 6.54 9 74 1 0 1 0 0 0
D.Schouman 6.45 6 80 0 0 1 0 0 0
J.Stevens 6.45 7 54 1 0 1 0 0 0
B.Manumaleunaa 6.45 7 49 1 0 1 0 0 0
R.Hall 6.40 4 89 0 0 1 0 0 0
T.Jacobs 5.90 7 47 1 0 -1 0 0 0
C.Francies 5.75 4 76 0 0 1 0 0 0
C.Holiday 5.74 4 76 0 0 1 0 0 0
C.Stuckey 5.72 4 76 0 0 1 0 0 0
D.Ball 5.72 4 76 0 0 1 0 0 0
D.Clowney 5.72 4 76 0 0 1 0 0 0
S.Aiken 5.67 5 73 0 0 1 0 0 0
J.Carter 5.46 4 71 0 0 1 0 0 0
M.Gasperson 5.40 4 69 0 0 1 0 0 0
D.Tyree 5.31 7 60 0 0 1 0 0 0
J.Jenkins 5.28 4 67 0 0 1 0 0 0
S.Mayle 5.28 4 67 0 0 1 0 0 0
A.Halterman 5.28 4 67 0 0 1 0 0 0
K.Reed 5.28 4 67 0 0 1 0 0 0
J.Higgins 5.27 9 69 1 2 10 0 0 1
B.Rideau 5.04 4 62 0 0 1 0 0 0
M.Hass 5.04 4 62 0 0 1 0 0 0
M.Willis 4.94 5 57 0 0 1 0 0 0
J.Cribbs 4.90 7 69 1 5 31 0 0 2
D.Hixon 4.64 6 49 0 0 -2 0 0 0
T.Brown 4.57 4 29 0 0 1 0 0 0
Y.Figurs 4.55 5 72 0 1 9 0 0 1
K.Osgood 4.48 6 46 0 0 1 0 0 0
B.Lloyd 4.43 6 40 0 0 1 0 0 0
J.Mathis 4.32 5 44 0 0 1 0 0 0
B.Ealy 4.03 5 40 0 0 1 0 0 0
C.Gessner 3.99 4 41 0 0 1 0 0 0
M.Spurlock 3.99 4 41 0 0 1 0 0 0
C.McFoy 3.93 5 35 0 0 1 0 0 0
D.Boston 3.81 4 41 0 0 1 0 0 0
P.Williams 3.76 4 36 0 0 1 0 0 0
H.Williams 3.69 4 35 0 0 1 0 0 0
E.Parker 3.59 4 32 0 0 1 0 0 0
C.Owens 3.55 4 32 0 0 1 0 0 0
T.Wilson 3.44 4 30 0 0 1 0 0 0
J.Hill 3.35 5 27 0 0 1 0 0 0
C.Jackson 3.30 4 29 0 0 1 0 0 0
Ch.Davis 3.28 7 59 0 3 20 0 0 2
D.Blakley 3.23 5 18 0 0 1 0 0 0
K.Washington 3.22 4 29 0 0 1 0 0 0
B.Sippio 3.20 4 25 0 0 1 0 0 0
S.Bodiford 3.10 4 23 0 0 1 0 0 0
MikeLewis 3.09 4 23 0 0 1 0 0 0
J.Farris 3.06 4 23 0 0 1 0 0 0
L.McCoy 2.99 4 23 0 0 1 0 0 0
E.Drummond 2.59 4 25 0 1 3 0 0 1
E.Weems 2.46 4 10 0 0 1 0 0 0
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