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Running Back Predictions for the 2008 Fantasy Football Season

September 2nd, 2008 by Matt Thomson

Well, I apologize for not getting these out sooner but my draft just finished this week so there was no gun to my head in getting these models run. But in case you’re still curious about some regression-based predictions for this fantasy football season, I’ll drop the running backs on you today and then come back with wide receivers tomorrow and tight ends on friday.

Some quick notes on the running backs. In general, you’ll notice that the rushing yardage is quite depressed. This is largely because running backs tend toward entropy. That is, once they have a big season, the next season’s rushing total doesn’t quite live up to that previous season. Call it what you will: overwork from the prior year, increased injury likelihood, or teams keying on that back. Whatever the case, you are seeing this effect here. We know that some of these backs will break out and rush for a whole boatload of yards. But my model isn’t going to take risks on backs to do that so it discounts the yards for the whole lot.

The key to my running back model is really to use each player in context. So while LT’s 994 yards may seem too few, when we see him in context, he has the third-highest rushing total. Now that seems acceptable. The same goes for receptions where Brian Westbrook will have the most, even if the total is 33 below his 2007 total of 90.

Without further ado, the list:

Player 2008 Points Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush Tds Recepts Rec. Yds Rec. TDs 100-Yards Fumbles
L.Tomlinson 150.37 290 994 13 36 304 2 5 2
B.Westbrook 132.84 271 1120 8 57 481 2 5 3
C.Portis 119.47 243 933 10 28 209 1 3 3
J.Addai 109.51 219 990 7 34 267 1 3 2
Adrian.Peterson 108.74 246 1092 6 33 287 1 4 3
M.Lynch 97.04 193 846 8 22 164 1 2 1
M.Barber 96.89 193 818 6 37 305 1 3 2
J.Lewis 93.68 230 898 7 21 164 1 4 3
S.Jackson 93.02 179 694 8 27 218 1 2 2
W.McGahee 90.50 209 842 6 30 235 1 3 3
F.Gore 89.51 206 880 5 38 307 1 3 3
A.Peterson 81.98 121 548 7 30 240 1 2 1
K.Watson 81.57 163 743 5 36 295 1 2 2
R.Grant 80.67 173 768 5 31 261 1 2 2
R.Bush 72.01 133 598 4 42 343 1 2 3
L.White 71.89 187 809 4 21 144 0 2 2
B.Jacobs 70.23 169 675 4 28 237 1 3 3
C.Taylor 70.05 166 710 4 24 207 1 3 3
W.Parker 69.32 202 770 4 23 169 0 3 3
E.James 68.39 210 770 5 13 86 1 2 3
E.Graham 66.20 148 676 3 27 214 1 2 1
J.Fargas 63.81 170 724 3 25 204 0 3 2
R.Brown 62.95 134 586 3 26 223 1 2 1
L.Maroney 60.11 148 630 4 15 115 0 2 1
F.Taylor 60.09 188 705 3 14 124 0 3 2
K.Jones 59.70 128 540 4 18 138 1 1 2
T.Jones 57.61 177 639 4 15 102 1 2 2
D.Williams 54.36 131 569 3 24 201 1 2 2
R.Dayne 53.91 140 562 3 16 119 0 2 1
D.Ward 52.75 113 496 3 23 194 1 2 1
J.Norwood 52.42 116 501 3 27 232 1 3 1
W.Dunn 50.85 136 490 4 11 70 1 2 2
D.Foster 50.43 148 606 3 17 117 1 2 3
M.Morris 50.34 123 540 2 20 163 1 2 1
S.Young 49.35 124 523 2 30 249 0 2 2
N.Davenport 48.98 107 459 3 18 143 1 1 1
C.Benson 48.42 122 511 3 15 103 0 1 2
A.Stecker 45.45 92 408 3 22 176 0 1 1
J.Jones 42.06 110 427 3 12 88 0 2 1
K.Keith 41.41 96 412 2 15 121 0 1 1
L.Washington 41.09 83 372 2 24 202 0 1 2
K.Faulk 41.04 77 315 2 27 223 1 2 1
L.Johnson 40.07 107 304 3 17 127 1 2 1
L.Jordan 39.70 112 427 2 18 137 1 1 1
J.Chatman 39.06 94 391 2 21 166 0 2 1
C.Brown 38.79 97 402 2 13 110 0 1 1
K.Smith 36.73 82 360 2 16 127 0 1 1
J.Wright 33.55 69 309 2 17 144 0 1 1
M.Smith 33.02 67 282 2 16 125 0 1 1
T.Henry 30.94 119 397 2 4 22 0 1 2
C.Buckhalter 30.03 71 281 2 11 95 0 1 1
S.Morris 28.37 73 287 2 8 65 0 1 1
L.Betts 28.08 71 280 1 14 105 0 1 1
R.Droughns 27.59 69 271 2 0 -6 0 1 1
B.Leonard 27.35 64 277 1 17 137 0 1 1
R.Johnson 26.57 94 297 2 3 1 0 1 1
P.Thomas 26.40 59 260 1 15 129 0 1 1
D.Wynn 24.53 56 261 1 9 71 0 0 1
F.Jackson 23.23 62 271 0 17 139 0 1 1
L.Booker 23.03 46 215 1 18 149 0 1 1
B.Jackson 22.83 59 258 1 12 95 0 1 1
M.Turner 22.76 56 214 2 8 64 0 1 1
S.Alexander 22.71 123 201 2 1 -12 0 1 1
D.Sproles 22.26 40 179 2 9 76 0 1 1
T.Duckett 21.62 68 197 1 8 64 0 1 1
V.Morency 19.88 41 176 1 17 144 0 0 1
D.Walker 19.72 54 233 1 12 100 0 1 1
J.Arrington 17.11 40 187 0 16 133 1 0 1
T.Bell 15.28 42 142 1 9 74 0 0 1
H.Evans 15.24 36 162 1 5 41 0 0 0
A.Bradshaw 14.40 39 162 1 8 67 0 1 1
A.Hall 13.99 50 224 0 7 53 0 1 1
S.Gado 13.27 37 152 1 4 25 0 0 0
M.Pittman 12.60 60 194 0 7 55 0 1 1
D.Rhodes 11.72 58 186 0 7 52 0 1 1
G.Wolfe 11.71 31 137 0 7 53 0 0 0
C.Henry 11.35 36 166 0 7 51 0 0 0
M.Hicks 11.33 36 142 0 11 89 0 0 1
D.Dorsey 10.75 35 141 0 9 75 0 0 1
A.Green 10.60 61 114 1 -1 -8 0 1 1
J.Harrison 10.46 30 120 0 6 49 0 1 0
C.Williams 10.00 48 195 0 2 9 0 0 1
A.Cason 9.72 26 103 0 9 74 0 0 1
M.Robinson 8.96 32 129 0 10 78 0 0 1
C.Ross 8.24 23 96 0 4 31 0 0 1
T.Minor 8.20 26 86 0 9 70 0 0 1
C.Dawson 7.39 23 99 0 3 17 0 0 0
A.Pittman 7.15 29 117 0 5 38 0 0 0
J.Battle 6.62 20 85 0 3 25 0 0 0
M.Moore 5.80 29 106 0 6 47 0 0 0
P.Cobbs 5.61 21 93 0 4 28 0 0 0
L.Lawton 5.14 14 58 0 5 36 0 0 0
B.Calhoun 4.95 17 73 0 6 45 0 0 0
M.Bennett 4.49 42 128 0 0 -1 0 0 1
T.Thompson 4.27 17 63 0 3 23 0 0 0
G.Harris 3.81 14 61 0 4 26 0 0 0
C.Davis 3.58 16 66 0 5 42 0 0 0
T.Hunt 3.32 15 67 0 2 14 0 0 0
A.Thomas 3.25 30 58 0 3 22 0 0 1
P.Daniels 2.54 10 38 0 3 20 0 0 0
D.Wright 2.31 24 94 -1 5 32 0 0 0
A.Pinner 2.14 16 37 0 3 21 0 0 0
J.Echemandu 1.87 19 75 -1 5 38 0 0 0
M.Anderson 1.74 20 8 0 1 10 0 0 1
D.Ware 1.53 10 38 0 3 20 0 0 0
P.Pass 1.19 10 35 0 2 16 0 0 0
G.Russell 0.61 13 49 0 3 19 0 0 0
M.Hedgecock 0.37 11 41 0 3 24 0 0 0
R.Mahe 0.10 10 38 0 2 19 0 0 0
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