Quarterback Predictions for the 2008 Fantasy Football Season

Last week I wrote about the Istobe willingness to share with you some of the predictive models that we use in our fantasy drafts. Well, a week later and the Istobe world headquarters is just now kicking the empty pizza boxes to the side and emerging into full sunlight with one hand visoring our eyes. Indeed, it’s been a computer-heavy week running model after model in an effort to win the right to mock our peers.

My quarterback-selection model (like my running back, wide receiver, and tight end models), which I share with you today, is actually a series of regression models that use 27 different predictors to arrive at an estimation of how NFL quarterbacks will fare this year in the following categories:

• Completions
• Passing Yards
• Interceptions
• Passing Touchdowns
• Fumbles
• Rushing Yards
• Rushing Touchdowns

I used these categories to derive a fantasy value based on my league’s scoring system and urge you to the do the same.

The Highlights

1. Tom Brady will have another big season. He’ll ease back on the touchdowns and increase his interceptions. But the yardage? Off the hook. Check out those 5200 yards he’s going to pass for.
2. Favre will stay strong even as he gets long in the tooth. Even with his moving to a new team accounted for, it looks like Favre will go ballistic again.
3. Donovan McNabb. Marc Bulger. Where hast you two gone? If we believe the super crunching, McNabb’s freefall will go unabated and Marc Bulger will continue to circle the drain. The truth is, my model hates the injured. And both of these guys get injured. A lot. Bulger’s only played one 16-game season in his life.

One thing that you’ll generally notice is that it looks a lot like other expert lists. Well, that’s good in a way. The important thing is to get a non-biased look at what history tells us. And the model does that well. Case in point:

J.T. O’Sullivan

The new Niners quarterback is pretty low on this list (#50). Being a devout 49ers fan, I’d love to pick him up. Especially with Mike Martz as his offensive coordinator. My shoulder devil tells me, “Pick him up; he’s gonna make you forget that he’s been on six teams before. He’s the next Martz find.” Well, my model comes back and slaps me in the face with that #50. What the model tells me is that, on average, quarterbacks like O’Sullivan more often than not get off the bench only to quickly get back on it. Problem is, you never hear of them. Or you forget about them quickly. We only remember the winners. Yes, for every Kurt Warner, there is a Ryan Fitzpatrick. This does bring up two problems with the model, however.

Two Stats I Wish I Had

1. Offensive coordinator per season. Just too much work but likely an interesting addition to the model. If for no other reason than to boost my boy J.T.
2. Years in league. Again, just too labor intensive to build in. But I do think that it would give us a good idea when ageless wonders like Favre should be avoided in fantasy circles.

Without Further Ado

Here’s the list that you’ve been waiting for. Have at it.

Tags: fantasy football, Predictive Analytics, Predictive Models

Want to add smart product recommendations to your e-commerce site?

Deliver product recommendations tailored to each individual shopper's tastes the easy way. Web-based with no IT required. Get started with a free trial.

This entry was posted on Thursday, August 28th, 2008 at 7:48 pm and is filed under Predictive Analytics, Predictive Models. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.